Latest guidance continuing to suggest the idea that a nearly
solid line of convection will be ongoing across the area early Friday night
just ahead of the approaching sharp cold frontal boundary and vigorous upper
level shortwave. At this time there appears to be a rather significant threat
for associated severe weather with this line as low level wind shear across the
region increases, especially during the evening hours. A few embedded
supercells are possible with a 50 kt 850 mb flow and some directional shear.
Although a linear storm mode is expected, would not rule out the possibility for
an isolated tornado given the amount of directional shear/helicity forecast.
This line will also produce heavy rain with precipitable water values around
1.5 inches, but the progressive nature of the system should lower the risk for
widespread flooding unless there is training.
