.SYNOPSIS...
Mid-summer warmth and humidity will remain in place across
our region through today, with afternoon high temperatures some 10 to 15 degrees
above normal. The dry weather will come to an end Monday into Tuesday, as the
remnants of Florence finally reach our forecast area. While some areas may
receive a soaking rain, a significant impact is not anticipated. A cold front
will then sweep through the region Tuesday night, bringing a return to much
cooler and drier weather for mid-week.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The remnants of Florence remain the main forecast challenge
in the short term period. The official National Hurricane Center track forecasts
the depression to be over eastern Kentucky Monday morning, then picked up by
the westerlies Monday night, as the depression lies over the north-central
Appalachians and transported quickly into southern New England near cape Code
by early Tuesday night.
Widespread showers will overspread the region from the
south-southwest Monday and continue Monday night before tapering off through
Tuesday. Pockets of moderate to heavy rain are possible, with the greatest
threat for this occurrence to be along the western Southern Tier and Southern
Finger Lakes, although the axis of overall heavy rainfall will be southeast of
the area focused within the main convergence along developing warm front
extending northeast from the post-tropical low. Enough spread remains in model
rainfall forecasts to stay close to continuity and WPC forecasts. This yields basin
average rainfall between an inch and an inch and three quarters along the
western Southern Tier and southern Finger Lakes. Lower amounts under an inch
are forecast across the northern tier of the area from Buffalo to Rochester to
Watertown.
Tropical rains will keep temperatures cooler than they have
been the past few days, but still looking at temperatures above normal for mid-September
with most highs in the mid to upper 70s both Monday and Tuesday.
