With some weather forecasts predicting the first snow to fall in late October for much of western New York, the reality of the pending winter is beginning to hit home for many area residents. To help customers prepare for the upcoming winter, National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation (“the Utility” or “National Fuel”) today released its forecast for home heating costs. Should western New York return to seasonally “normal” temperatures consistent with the 15-year historical average, the typical National Fuel residential customer will see their winter utility bills increase 13% versus last season. For the 5-month period of November through March, National Fuel estimates that residential winter heating costs will total $560 for an average monthly bill of $112. Compared to last winter, which was the third warmest on record for Buffalo and its surrounding communities, residential heating costs averaged $494, or $99 per month. Temperatures last winter were nearly 16% warmer-than-normal. National Fuel had projected last year’s winter bills, with more typical colder weather, to be $572 for the 5-month period.
The projected increase is driven by several factors, including the expectation of a colder winter which will result in customers using more gas for home heating, and the estimated increase in delivery rates following the conclusion of Utility’s base rate case. Last fall, National Fuel requested the New York Public Service Commission (“PSC”) for its first base delivery rate increase since 2017. An increase in the Utility’s delivery rates could take effect as early as Dec. 1, 2024, pending the PSC’s decision on a joint proposal filed in September. Gas supply rates are expected to be relatively unchanged as market prices for natural gas have remained low and fairly stable.
National Fuel’s winter heating bill forecast can change based on important factors that are out of the Utility’s control, including colder or warmer than normal weather and the potential for fluctuations in market prices for natural gas supplies. National Fuel does not set the price of the natural gas supplies it buys, stores and delivers to its customers. Rather, the Utility passes its costs along to the customer at the very same rate without mark up or profit. While market prices for natural gas could rise over the course of the winter, National Fuel has already purchased and placed into storage approximately 40% of its gas supply requirements for the winter at low market prices.
“While we are expecting a modest increase in bills this winter, heating with natural gas remains the most affordable and reliable energy source for the residents and businesses in western New York,” said Donna L. DeCarolis, President of National Fuel. “Market prices for natural gas, the cost of the energy source, have remained low and relatively stable for more than a decade. And even though we expect an increase in our delivery rates for only the second time in more than 15 years, our customers will continue to benefit from among the lowest delivery rates in the state while having the peace of mind that they have safe access to a reliable energy source on the coldest of Buffalo days.”
